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Living with The Long
Emergency… An Inconvenient Probability
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by Suzanne Fisher
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Honest Weight Food Co-op
supports local growers and producers of foods and other goods for many
purposes, including strengthening the regional economy, lessening the
environmental impact of transportation with fossil fuels, procuring the
freshest organic and naturally grown produce available, and
transferring some of our financial endorsement from big business to
smaller, more responsible companies to encourage them in their efforts.
While these motivations have always been good for us, in the very near
future they may become essential for our survival. Published in 2006,
The Long Emergency is a fascinating read about where the world is
headed. Author James Howard Kunstler discusses the concept of "peak
oil" production and what will happen afterwards. Peak oil production is
the point in time at which world resources of petroleum are being
extracted at the greatest capacity. It is a time when easy-to-access
petroleum is still available, and there is plenty of it to be had for
the countries with oil fields.
The United States experienced its own peak in the '70s, after which it
stopped producing most of its own oil and began to import it from the
Middle East and other countries. Offshore drilling, currently cited by
some as a solution, would supply our nation with enough oil for only a
few months, according to Kunstler. The same is true of Alaska. Other
countries are now running out of oil as well, and are beginning to
extract it in ways that are much more difficult and expensive because
the oil itself is much deeper, or imbedded in rock. Given our recent
history, it seems a safe bet to say that we are past peak oil
production worldwide, and headed downward.
Many people speak vaguely of alternate technologies, such as wind
power, solar and geothermal. Others say that we will become reliant on
nuclear energy, with all its problems of waste management. Some propose
that we will have to drive electric cars powered by the traditional
fuels of natural gas and coal. The optimistic hail nuclear hydrogen
fusion as the power of the near future.
James Kunstler points out that these answers betray a misunderstanding
of the complexity of energy production and use. Our society has been
structured around the availability of cheap and easy energy, and it
isn't going to be there for much longer. Coal has become more and more
difficult to mine because its easiest-to-extract sources are exhausted.
(Jeff Goodell's book Big Coal explains this in a very readable and
engaging manner.) Natural gas fields are becoming depleted, and even
wind and solar resources depend on the oil, coal and natural gas
industries to power the factories that create the components for their
building and repair. Byproducts of oil are in almost everything we use
in our everyday existence. Even the nuclear energy industry depends on
fossil fuels to erect their immense facilities, using heavy equipment
powered by gasoline and fossil fuel in the construction phase. Nuclear
plants are not permanent—that is, they are routinely closed after
producing for a given number of years, for safety and other practical
reasons. We also do not have many of them. Nuclear fusion does not look
any closer to being a source of energy in spite of years of research.
It still requires more energy to create a hydrogen fuel cell than one
gets out of it. The question is, then: What are we going to do when we
run out of oil?
After reading Kunstler's book more than a year ago, I tried to put it
aside. The problem was that things kept happening to remind me of it.
Gas prices went crazy and financial markets have fluctuated wildly,
which he predicted. Our new president, Barak Obama, when asked which of
our problems he would address first, initially chose energy concerns
over healthcare, education, the economy, the environment and ending the
war in Iraq. He seemed to understand that without energy, none of these
other things would be the biggest hardship for our country.
Whether he follows through with this remains to be seen, with the
economy looking worse every day. While it is a relief to know that he
is cognizant of the problem of dwindling energy resources, it is also
alarming to realize that this challenge is really there, as much as we
ignore it in our daily lives. Michael Pollan, who writes extensively
about food and food production, wrote an open letter to the future
president before the election, published in the New York Times, with
advice for helping the country feed itself in the ensuing energy
famine. He stated that the biggest concern for the citizens of our
nation in the close future may very well be where they will get food
enough for the next day. It is comforting to read his positive
suggestions, but what he is talking about is a drastic change in our
society that is not going to go away.
One way to begin to understand the implications of a world without
petroleum is to try to live one day without it. You will find that
almost everything you touch has had something to do with petroleum,
from the plastic in your alarm clock to the fuel used to grow and
transport your breakfast, the energy to make the fabric for your
clothes, the production of your toothbrush, your toothpaste, and your
hair brush. Thinking beyond the morning routine, would you be able to
get to work if you didn't drive on asphalt, a by-product of petroleum,
in your car, which drinks gasoline, or on your bike, whose tires
contain petroleum? For a clearer picture of this, "Google" the list of
items made with petroleum byproducts. There are 6,000, and this is not
an exhaustive list. Would your job even be there in a world where there
were no fossil fuels?
I highly recommend reading The Long Emergency, Michael Pollan's letter
about a "Farmer in Chief" in the New York Times, and Jeff Goodell's
book Big Coal. When you do, consider your own needs and opportunities
to feed yourself out of your back yard, and from very nearby local
farms and businesses. Think about heat and water for your home and
transportation that does not include fossil fuels. Our learning curve
may have to be a little shorter than we expect, and the sooner we get
started, the better.
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